More than two-thirds of applicants for the new sickness-related benefit are failing in their claims, it was reported in Octoner 2009, suggesting that many of the 2.6 million existing incapacity benefit claimants will be forced on to a lower level of benefit when they are assessed over the next two to three years.

2.6 million! Do we really think that 2.6m adults of working age are unfit for any form of work?

36% of claimants for the new employment and support allowance (ESA) have been judged capable of work, and a further third of the initial claimants dropped out before completing the claim.

So what does this mean for benefit fraud? Incapacity benefit has been running at £6.6bn a year. The latest fraud totals for incapacity benefit rose from £10m to £70m. But that's still a ludicrous 1% of the total.

If even just one third of claimants were taken off incapacity benefit, that alone would represent benefit payments of £2.2bn a year.

And remember: that cautious one third rate would be just half of the failure rate for the new sickness benefit.